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News Flash: Recession Not Really Over

Discussion in 'Picture Framing Business Issues' started by Paul Cascio, Sep 21, 2010.

  1. Paul Cascio

    Paul Cascio SGF, Supreme Grumble Framer

    I know there's was some mathematical formula that was used to determine that we are no longer in a recession. However, I'm here to say that the formula is wrong.

    Yesterday we were in a recession, but today we are not? Ask any small to medium size business if we are out of a recession?

    I definately believe things are improving, but we're not out the woods. However, I also think this positive declaration may help stimulate the economy, so I'll wait and see.
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    GUMBY GCF SGF, Supreme Grumble Framer

    Paul funny you post this
    I was watching Bloomberg an hour ago and at the bottom of the screen with their little news headlines. It said "recession was over in 2009" ...
    We are in a recovery now..
    I could not believe it so I sat there and watched for an hour they repeated it three times..... so there, it must be true. I read it on Bloomberg.....

    Small Business & the little people just have not caught on yet.
  3. jim_p

    jim_p SGF, Supreme Grumble Framer

    That ranks right up there with "The operation was a success, but the patient died". The numbers say we're in recovery, durnit! Pay no attention to that unemployment line snaking around the block...
  4. artfolio

    artfolio SGF, Supreme Grumble Framer

    Here in Australia our Government has been beating the same drum claiming that they "got us through the recession in better shape than most other countries".

    In my humble opinion using the past tense is all wrong. We are not an island - economically speaking anyway- and the financial woes in Europe and the U.S.A. will affect us sooner or later.

    We are doing quite nicely at present selling iron ore to the Chinese but this is pursuant to contracts signed a couple of years ago. The Chinese won't keep buying our dirt if they have nowhere to sell their manufactured goods so it will hit us; a little later but hit us it will.

    Until Europe and the U.S.A. get themselves sorted out and on the road to recovery the global financial crisis will be alive and well.
  5. couture's gallery

    couture's gallery PFG, Picture Framing God

    "the recession is over" is kind of like Obama's 'change".
  6. Beveled

    Beveled SGF, Supreme Grumble Framer

  7. couture's gallery

    couture's gallery PFG, Picture Framing God

    Well, let's see....
    our unemployment rate here hit 13.6% in August
    foreclosure were up 22% from last August
    my property value lost another 20% last month (zillow report )
    business is down about 10% compared to last August/Sept
    bankruptcy in our district is up 13% from last August..

    so let's see...I GUESS THE RECESSIONN IS OVER.
  8. i-m-chickie

    i-m-chickie SGF, Supreme Grumble Framer

    I can show them some math...
  9. Paul N

    Paul N In Corner

    My customers thought the recession ended since mid April. This has been a very good summer.
  10. johnny

    johnny SGF, Supreme Grumble Framer

    Mission Accomplished amirite?
  11. Paul N

    Paul N In Corner

    Nah, just a surge.
  12. David N Waldmann

    David N Waldmann SGF, Supreme Grumble Framer

    Maybe "they" saw how effective the scare tactics about how poor the economy was in cutting off spending that they figured the reverse would work as well...

    On a more realistic note, I don't thing many of us (myself included) really have any idea how the country as a whole is doing. We hear snippets here and there and suddenly we think we have our finger on the pulse. That doesn't mean I trust or believe the talking heads, but I recognize that it is a very complex subject and in the best of circumstances it's hard to know what's really going on.

    With all that said, we have fairly widespread customer base throughout the northeast, and while a few of our customers have been doing poorly, overall we are up 40% over last year at this time. Yes, some of that is diversification and expansion of our product base, and new customers. But I think people are starting to spend money again. The problem with 2009 was that in addition to the people who had no money, those who did were holding on to it. The fingers seem to be a bit looser this year.
  13. Randall C Colvin

    Randall C Colvin CGF II, Certified Grumble Framer Level 2

    Hearing "the news" that the recession ended a year ago brought to mind a line from the movie "The Outlaw Josey Wales" - "Don't p!ss down my back and tell me it's raining."
  14. hangupsgallery

    hangupsgallery MGF, Master Grumble Framer

    "The recession is over!"

    Maybe, just maybe, that's what we need....a few possitive thoughts. I've been a firm believer that with all the 24/7 news , internet blogs, etc, it has just been fueling the fire unnecessarily.

    Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm(positive vibes happening)
  15. Framing Queen

    Framing Queen CGF II, Certified Grumble Framer Level 2

    Some areas of the country are still struggling. But I've had the best summer in a long time and I'm mucho thankful for it.

    I was in Denver over the Labor Day weekend and stopped in a frame shop there where the owner said "recession, what recession?" Seems like Denver never really felt it. Yet, MI, CA, NV and FL were among the states hardest hit.

    Here's hoping the economists are right.

  16. Candy

    Candy SGF, Supreme Grumble Framer

    I heard that yesterday and thought I heard wrong. Then about an hour ago, we were in a restaurant that had a Detroit Free Press declaring that the recession is over in big headlines. Now I come on the G, and I hear that the recession is over.

    However, as I sit here at home looking out my window at the 3 houses nearby that have been up for sale for ever and ever, one sits empty, the economy in MI is still #49 out of 50 states. That is except for Ann Arbor where Randy lives........:D

    However, on the flip side, my son did finally get a job about 2 weeks ago now.......after 2 years of looking, that is a good thing. My son-in-law has been at his job for just over a year and that was after 2 years of living hand to mouth never knowing where the next odd job was going to come from.

    Yes, maybe we are heading up.........................
  17. Emibub

    Emibub PFG, Picture Framing God

    Might want to sample more than one business before declaring Denver's economy healthy. We've seen many shops vanish the past couple years, including mine. Two of the biggest and best shops have closed down due to the economy very recently. We get many returned PPFA newsletters from shops that no longer exist. Not much in the way of new ones opening either. The industry has taken a big hit here.

    You don't have to drive around far to find vacancy after vacancy in just about any shopping center. Plenty of foreclosures and upside down real estate too. In fact I think we have the dubious honor of having one of the hardest hit zip codes with the most foreclosures and devastating home values in the country.

    Just had to respond to that. I'm glad to hear somebody here is thriving but most I know are just riding out the storm. I'm just sayin...
  18. hangupsgallery

    hangupsgallery MGF, Master Grumble Framer

  19. Peter Odems

    Peter Odems SPFG, Supreme Picture Framing God

    The same feeling here in Holland......

    I see the recession in 2 parts.

    1. The money-boomers, gold-traders, oil-spoilers and banks, are strong enough to care for themselves and recover by our payments.... (some in the US even bankrupt at the #2-group costs)

    2. The small-business and normal employers do pay for the #1-part's recession and their/our recovering will come about 2 years later as the #1-group.

    The "stupid" media broadcasts around that the recession is over, but this is only for the #1-group. In Europe they now start to find new taxes to make banks stronger and also better positions for the #1-group. I think politicians only have sight and connections with the #1-group . Only in election-time they come to bring their "message" to the #2-group.

    But we also have a technology-development now. We move to electric cars, we move to new energy-sources and all the costs that come also has to be payed by the #2-group.

    My remedy is "be special" and your customers keep loving your "special" work. Care for yourself and some of the #2-group because none of the #1-group will ever care for others.
  20. Pangolin

    Pangolin SGF, Supreme Grumble Framer

    A slightly different angle on this. I was talking to a friend that's an OBGYN. She was saying that they notice the changes in the economy ealier than most because of the number of pregnancies and babies being born.

    She said that for the last rwo years, the baby production has been very slow. Just not as many people feel financially comfortable enough to start having or have more kids.

    She also said that in the last three months, things have picked up. There are a lot more pregnant women coming in... which could indicate that people feel that the ecnomy is settled and recovering enough to justify the expenses for new little crumb-crunchers.

    (As a personal note, four of my friends are due soon: October, December, March, and April... one is kid #3, one is kid #1, and the other two are kid #2 for my friends. Now, either my friends FEEL more financially stable than I do (I know, however, that they aren't) or, they are just tired of waiting the economy out and are throwing caution to the wind!)
  21. rmehoves

    rmehoves CGF II, Certified Grumble Framer Level 2

    Another way to look at that may be that both in the relationship are now out of work and have nothing else to do..............;)
  22. MabSadie2

    MabSadie2 PFG, Picture Framing God

    Or they could finally be accepting that this is the new normal. I'm eyeing the end of the recession to have my second. Either my oldest will be in school or I will have a little more space in my belt to be able to afford the extra daycare. It's a lot to consider. Between $600 daycare, $300 hospital payments and all the extra diapers and formula, this is a bad bad time to double up.

    In 2008, when the sky was crashing down, I could see putting off the extra expense, but as we get used to the highs and lows of recession, we adapt and carry on with our lives.
  23. pwalters

    pwalters SGF, Supreme Grumble Framer

    Or there is quite a bit of "pent up demand" from Abstaining all this time.:D
  24. Peter Odems

    Peter Odems SPFG, Supreme Picture Framing God

    No Frames----->No Games. ;)
  25. JFeig

    JFeig SGF, Supreme Grumble Framer

  26. drandall

    drandall CGF, Certified Grumble Framer

    When they stop printing more paper everyone will say it's over but then a candy bar will be $5. along with everything else priced unimaginably.

    We will be talking about inflation the recession forgotten. It's a tangled web being wove.

    BILL WARD SGF, Supreme Grumble Framer

    well of course it is!!!!!!!!!!! we passed that one a looong time back...we are NOW into depression!!!!!!!!!!!!!!(as if the last 5 years were NOT in/of themselves....depressing enough?):vomit:

    it's called 'the BIG lie' technique----it you say it long/loud/often enough it becomes it's own self-fulfilling prophecy(people will start repeating/believing it!!!!!!!!!! no matter how dumb/crazy it is)
  28. Framar

    Framar SPFG, Supreme Picture Framing God

    I think anyone having a child these days must be out of their trees - no offense Nicole but good grief - who knows how much worse this can get? It it getting seriously scary, at least for me - I cannot even afford to bring a kitten into my household - and babies cost hundreds of thousands of dollars when you add everything up over that first 18 years or so - and I know a lot of parents who thought their kid had safely fledged and boy howdy guess who is back living at home again.
  29. JFeig

    JFeig SGF, Supreme Grumble Framer

    September 28, 2010

    The Detroit News

    Michigan families have been hit the hardest by the recession, with incomes plummeting and poverty rising at rates seen nowhere else in the country, according to the U.S. Census Bureau statistics released today.

    Median household income for the state in 2009 was 21.3 percent below 2000 levels, the biggest drop in the nation and 6.5 percent lower than 2008. And the poverty rate, although not the highest in the nation at 16.2 percent, rose the fastest among all states since 2000, according to the U.S. Census.

    With economists now saying the recession ended in 2009, it could be that the income drop seen last year will provide the bottom for the state. But a substantial bottom it is: The median household income was $42,255, more than $12,000 lower than the median was at in 2000 when adjusted for inflation.

    Locally, Sterling Heights (a Detroit suburb) recorded the steepest income drop off all U.S. cities with a population of 65,000 or more, shedding more than $25,000 in annual income. The city had a 2009 median household income of $51,545, more than third lower than its $77,873 median income in 2000. Similar drops were recorded in Kalamazoo and Detroit.

    Nationwide, median household income is down just 2.9 percent from 2008 and 6.6 percent from 2000. Michigan's national ranking during that time went from 16th in 2000 to 35th in 2009.

    Much of the decline is attributed to the loss of hundreds of thousands of high-paying, yet lower-skill manufacturing job that once were the backbone of the state economy. As many of those jobs vanished, workers were forced to find alternative work in lower-paying industries.

    The shakeout of the nation's manufacturing sector ravaged the Midwest, and the closest other states in terms of income loss are neighbors Indiana and Ohio, where median household income is down 15.1 percent and 13.9 percent, respectively.

    The information is gleaned from the Census Bureau's 2009 American Community Survey, an annual survey of 3 million households that provides a social, demographic and economic snapshot of the nation. It is different from the 2010 decennial Census taken this year that will provide population numbers for the nation. The first set of that data will be released by the end of the year.

    In addition to providing information on states, it provides insights into all geographies -- cities and counties -- with more than 65,000 people.

    The statistics show that the migration of African-Americans from Wayne County to Macomb County continues, with 8.1 percent of Macomb's population now African-American -- a year earlier, it was 7.2 percent. It's the biggest one-year jump recorded by the ACS since it began in 2005, when 5.7 percent of the county's population was African-American.
  30. Terry Hart cpf

    Terry Hart cpf SGF, Supreme Grumble Framer

    Top 1% of earners get 20% of the money

    Tom Abate, SF Chronicle Staff Writer

    Sunday, September 26, 2010

    Soaring unemployment has poured salt into a long-festering economic wound - the widening gap between rich and poor Americans, a trend that has been accompanied by a hollowing out of the middle class.

    One unimpeachable view of this wage gap comes from a Federal Reserve report that examined the period leading up to the housing bust and recession, and noted that "income became more 'unequally' distributed over the 1988-2006 period."

    A more provocative analysis emerges from research co-written by UC Berkeley economist Emmanuel Saez.

    After studying Internal Revenue Service records since 1913, Saez found that the fraction of total income reported by the top 1 percent of tax filers peaked at 23.94 percent in 1928.

    Thereafter, income for this elite group fell for decades, only to rise from the 1980s through 2007, when this top strata took in 23.5 percent of all reported income.

    Former Clinton administration labor secretary Robert Reich, now a public policy professor at UC Berkeley, argues that working class incomes have stagnated for so long that ordinary consumers - who account for about 70 percent of all economic activity - have lost the buying power to pull the country out of recession.

    "We have got to address this inequality, or it will derail the economy," said Reich, who will speak at the Commonwealth Club Tuesday evening about the plan he proposes in his new book, "Aftershock," to tax the rich to pay for training and other assistance to help Americans climb the income ladder.

    Such rhetoric may smack of class warfare, but it wasn't so long ago that former Citigroup analyst Ajay Kapur cited Saez's findings to bolster his argument that the United States had become what he dubbed a "plutonomy" - an economy driven by the spending of its wealthy elites.

    "At the heart of plutonomy is income inequality," Kapur wrote in 2005, adding, "The rich are getting richer; they dominate spending. Their trend of getting richer looks unlikely to end any time soon."


    Not a rosy picture for pulling out of a recession but it ehoes what I've been seeing in our sales (& commenting on) for a number of years now. Maybe it's different in your neighborhood.
  31. Pat Murphey

    Pat Murphey SPFG, Supreme Picture Framing God

    How many of the folks complaining about loss of manufacturing jobs have been buying Toyotas, Hondas, Datsun/Nissans, Volkswagens, Audis, BMWs and Mercedes for years? How many shop at Walmart or anywhere else that is just cheaper?
  32. jim_p

    jim_p SGF, Supreme Grumble Framer

    Bad analogy. Many "foreign" cars sold in the US are, in fact, assembled in US-based factories.

    Well this is a bit ironic: as US middle- and lower-class incomes continue to fall in real terms, individuals have to seek out the best values for themselves despite the effect on the larger economy.
  33. couture's gallery

    couture's gallery PFG, Picture Framing God

    Just form your info..my Honda Element is manufactured in Ohio..the transmission is the only part manufactured in Japan...the Element is exported to Japan and a small tag with a chrome eagle is added under the Element badge that says "Made in U.S.A. " on this export version.

    My GMC Yukon XL states that 70% of the parts are made in USA...so it is more "foreign" than my Honda....My Dodge truck is manufactuired in Mexico... and most major parts are made in Mexico and Japan...about 90% "foreign" on this truck.
  34. Pat Murphey

    Pat Murphey SPFG, Supreme Picture Framing God

    Excellent analogy, actually. US assembly of those cars is not how it started and blossomed. US assembly is proof that US manufacturing can be competitive if unfettered by legacy costs, "archaic" Union rules and Government intervention.

    I spent my entire previous career in Union "leadership" postitions, and therefore, exactly understand how many of our problems developed.
  35. Pat Murphey

    Pat Murphey SPFG, Supreme Picture Framing God

    Which came first, the chicken or the egg? :p
  36. Paul N

    Paul N In Corner

    The new rallying word for the Republicans.

    Give us an example please, how the government intervention "ruined" the auto industry / manufacturing.

    And please include clean air, safety measures and gas mileage standard, should you forget those bad "interventions"....:p
  37. Bob Doyle

    Bob Doyle SPFG, Supreme Picture Framing God

    Paul it's an election year, Fox is in overtime spin control. Don't blame Pat, blame the messenger :)
  38. Pat Murphey

    Pat Murphey SPFG, Supreme Picture Framing God

    Paul, Ford is making it, GM and Chrysler are not - referring to intervention in financial and business affairs, not safety and environmental regulations that mostly make sense and apply equally to all.

    (Good - safety, polution control. Bad - gas mileage (CO2 is only a political pollutant).)
  39. Bob Doyle

    Bob Doyle SPFG, Supreme Picture Framing God

    GCC is real, science is real, GCC Scandalgate was overhyped. The emails turned out to show know "wrong doing" was done by the scientists. Skepticism was funded by oil companies and major polluters. Stop fighting the tide of change. If you won't fight GCC for the environment's sake then do it for your wallet's sake. Americans do want to buy solar panels, electric cars and other pollution fighting items. We can either let China make them for us, and lament the loss of the lightbulb factory, or we can start making the things people want to buy, even if all we can contribute is the technological knowhow since all our manufacturing jobs were outsourced.

    If GCC is your "lemons" then make lemonade by building the things the "greenidiots" want to buy. Stop burying your head in the sand of the incadescent light bulb and sell fools like me LEDs. Come on, my customers want FSC certified wood frames because they know to ask for them. If you can't embrace it for your kids sake, embrace it for your wallet's sake.
  40. cvm

    cvm PFG, Picture Framing God

    Yeah, take a stand. Start small. Ride yer bike to work. Shun all customers that arrive to yer place via internal combustion engine power. Riot.

    John Brown is my hero. Thunderclap Newman sings my theme song. No worries. I've got yer back.
  41. AnneL

    AnneL SPFG, Supreme Picture Framing God

    Gas mileage standards have little, if anything, to do with CO2 emissions. That would be emissions standards.

    Gas mileage standards are so we don't use up a finite resource (oil) before we can replace it with some sort of viable alternative. Given the increasing problems with extracting the last of that resource (oil) from our planet, we better get a move on those alternatives!
  42. Bob Doyle

    Bob Doyle SPFG, Supreme Picture Framing God

    So your stance is to turn your back on one of the few "growth markets" happening today? Instead of "leading the world like America should" you want to continue propping up dying light bulb technologies? Instead of innovating new electric car technologies you want to continue pumping out engines that thrive on a finite resource? Instead of finding new sources for dinosaur based fuels you want to dig deeper and hydrofrack our drinking water wells out of existence?

    Just thought I'd ask.
  43. cvm

    cvm PFG, Picture Framing God

    So you want to enuculate the meaning of words and inject inveracities? Maintain moronic extrapolations without merit?

    Just askin'.
  44. Bob Doyle

    Bob Doyle SPFG, Supreme Picture Framing God

    I don't know what enuculate means so when I googled it I was shocked! I am not trying to remove your eyes or do the same with words.

    Are you implying that I misunderstood your previous comment? I am guessing that you were being sarcastic and a little smart alecky about my comment to Pat about working to help fight GCC.

    Hydrofracking is to inject chemicals under high pressure to crack seams under ground to get more propane or oil out. It also has been polluting under water streams that people rely on for their drinking water.

    Petroleum is also called fossil fuels. Dinosaurs, now extinct, are one of the sources of fossil fuels. as are the other carboniferous life forms of their times, trees, ferns and the such. GB was selling an eco-hydro bumper sticker to show that dinosaur based fuel was eco friendly. Economic not ecologic, but I was thinking most GCC Deniers have the bumper sticker and would get the reference.
  45. cvm

    cvm PFG, Picture Framing God

    Yes! I told you all you need to know! Riot! I've got yer back! John Brown, Thunderclap Newman et al!
  46. Jim Miller

    Jim Miller SPFG, Supreme Picture Framing God

    One example: Federally-legislated union featherbedding.

    The Japanese car makers ran rings around American car makers, even for years after brought their operations here, mostly because they avoided union labor. The Japanese labor advantage has diminished over the years, as the American makers painstakingly coerced their unions into concessions that were absolutely necessary in order for them to remain marginally competitive, but they still were not able to finance the manufacturing technology improvements they really needed. Meanwhile, the bad habits of American labor have seeped into the Japanese operations, especially their contract suppliers, somewhat leveling the playing field.

    Ford has been the American maker most successful in negotiating competitive deals with the unions, which is one reason why that company didn't want or need a bailout. Ford also played the market correctly, in terms of manufacturing technologies and timing. The articles about Ford's continuing prosperity in this difficult time are fascinating, even though they are now struggling to compete with the heavily-subsidized GM and Chrysler. Kudos to Ford.
  47. Paul N

    Paul N In Corner

  48. Bob Doyle

    Bob Doyle SPFG, Supreme Picture Framing God

    Then sorry, but no one here ever tells anyone else to shun any customers :) So when you said to shun the internal combustion customers, well that couldn't have possibly been serious.... ;)
  49. Bob Doyle

    Bob Doyle SPFG, Supreme Picture Framing God

    Blame the worker, congratulate the corporation. Must be an election year....

    On a personal note, Jim, sorry I didn't make the Donmar days. 'Twas my daughter's birthday.
  50. David N Waldmann

    David N Waldmann SGF, Supreme Grumble Framer

    In English? Even a trip to Google left me puzzled as to whether you are speaking of the GNU Compiler Collection, or one of a myriad of Community Colleges in towns starting with "G".
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